A dynamic compartmental model for the Middle East respiratory syndrome outbreak in the Republic of Korea: A retrospective analysis on control interventions and superspreading events
Identifieur interne : 001406 ( Main/Exploration ); précédent : 001405; suivant : 001407A dynamic compartmental model for the Middle East respiratory syndrome outbreak in the Republic of Korea: A retrospective analysis on control interventions and superspreading events
Auteurs : Jonggul Lee [Corée du Sud] ; Gerardo Chowell [États-Unis] ; Eunok Jung [Corée du Sud]Source :
- Journal of Theoretical Biology [ 0022-5193 ] ; 2016.
Descripteurs français
- KwdFr :
- MESH :
English descriptors
- KwdEn :
- MESH :
- epidemiology : Coronavirus Infections.
- prevention & control : Coronavirus Infections, Disease Outbreaks.
- statistics & numerical data : Disease Outbreaks.
- Humans, Models, Biological, Republic of Korea, Retrospective Studies, Time Factors.
Abstract
The 2015 Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS) outbreak in the Republic of Korea has provided an opportunity to improve our understanding of the spread of MERS linked to healthcare settings. Here we designed a dynamic transmission model to analyze the MERS outbreak in the Republic of Korea based on confirmed cases reported during the period May 20–July 4, 2015. Our model explicitly incorporates superspreading events and time-dependent transmission and isolation rates. Our model was able to provide a good fit to the trajectory of the outbreak and was useful to analyze the role of hypothetical control scenarios. Specifically, we assessed the impact of the timing of control measures, especially associated with a reduction of the transmission rate and diagnostic delays on outbreak size and duration. Early interventions within 1 week after the epidemic onset, for instance, including the initial government announcement to the public about the list of hospitals exposed to MERS coronavirus (MERS-CoV), show a promising means to reduce the size (
Url:
DOI: 10.1016/j.jtbi.2016.08.009
PubMed: 27521523
PubMed Central: 7094115
Affiliations:
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Le document en format XML
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<front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en"><p>The 2015 Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS) outbreak in the Republic of Korea has provided an opportunity to improve our understanding of the spread of MERS linked to healthcare settings. Here we designed a dynamic transmission model to analyze the MERS outbreak in the Republic of Korea based on confirmed cases reported during the period May 20–July 4, 2015. Our model explicitly incorporates superspreading events and time-dependent transmission and isolation rates. Our model was able to provide a good fit to the trajectory of the outbreak and was useful to analyze the role of hypothetical control scenarios. Specifically, we assessed the impact of the timing of control measures, especially associated with a reduction of the transmission rate and diagnostic delays on outbreak size and duration. Early interventions within 1 week after the epidemic onset, for instance, including the initial government announcement to the public about the list of hospitals exposed to MERS coronavirus (MERS-CoV), show a promising means to reduce the size (<inline-formula><mml:math id="M1" altimg="si0016.gif" overflow="scroll"><mml:mrow><mml:mo>></mml:mo>
<mml:mn>71</mml:mn>
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) and duration (<inline-formula><mml:math id="M2" altimg="si0017.gif" overflow="scroll"><mml:mrow><mml:mo>></mml:mo>
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) of the MERS epidemic. Finally, we also present results of an uncertainty analysis focused on the role of superspreading events.</p>
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<affiliations><list><country><li>Corée du Sud</li>
<li>États-Unis</li>
</country>
<region><li>Géorgie (États-Unis)</li>
<li>Maryland</li>
<li>Région capitale de Séoul</li>
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<settlement><li>Séoul</li>
</settlement>
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<tree><country name="Corée du Sud"><region name="Région capitale de Séoul"><name sortKey="Lee, Jonggul" sort="Lee, Jonggul" uniqKey="Lee J" first="Jonggul" last="Lee">Jonggul Lee</name>
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<name sortKey="Jung, Eunok" sort="Jung, Eunok" uniqKey="Jung E" first="Eunok" last="Jung">Eunok Jung</name>
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<country name="États-Unis"><region name="Géorgie (États-Unis)"><name sortKey="Chowell, Gerardo" sort="Chowell, Gerardo" uniqKey="Chowell G" first="Gerardo" last="Chowell">Gerardo Chowell</name>
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